A coalition of Syrian rebel forces has launched a stunning offensive that threatens to topple the decades-long rule of President Bashar al-Assad, marking a dramatic escalation in the country’s prolonged civil war. By November 27, 2024, the rapid advance of opposition groups has exposed the fragility of the Assad regime, long propped up by foreign allies now distracted by their own conflicts. Below, we explore the offensive’s origins, its early successes, and the potential consequences as reported on this date.
A Surprise Assault Begins
On November 27, 2024, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), alongside Turkish-backed factions under the Syrian National Army (SNA), initiated a large-scale offensive codenamed “Deterrence of Aggression.” The assault began in the western Aleppo countryside, targeting Syrian government positions in response to recent artillery strikes on rebel-held Idlib that killed at least 30 civilians. HTS, led by former al-Qaeda commander Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, had been preparing for months, mobilizing forces in the Aleppo region to exploit a perceived window of opportunity.
Within hours, rebels seized 20 towns and villages, including Urm al-Kubra, Anjara, and the strategic 46th regiment base west of Aleppo. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported fierce clashes, with 37 government soldiers and allied militias killed alongside 60 opposition fighters. The offensive shattered a four-year ceasefire in Idlib, frozen since March 2020, and caught the regime off guard, with pro-government forces offering little initial resistance.
Why Now?
The rebels’ timing reflects a convergence of favorable conditions. Russia, a linchpin of Assad’s survival since its 2015 intervention, was bogged down in Ukraine, limiting its air support. Iran and its proxy Hezbollah, battered by Israel’s recent campaigns in Lebanon, were unable to reinforce Syrian lines as they had in past crises. The Syrian army, plagued by desertions and a collapsing economy—where inflation exceeded 100% and the Captagon drug trade barely sustained the regime—lacked the cohesion to mount a robust defense.
HTS framed the offensive as both retaliation for government bombardment and a strategic move to disrupt diplomatic efforts to normalize Assad’s rule regionally. Turkey, a key backer of the SNA, appeared to greenlight the operation, possibly to pressure Damascus into concessions or weaken Kurdish forces in the north. The rebels’ swift gains, including over 100 kilometers of the M5 highway linking Aleppo to Damascus by November 30, underscored the regime’s vulnerability.
Early Victories and Momentum
By November 27, 2024, the offensive had already achieved significant milestones. The capture of Aleppo’s western outskirts marked the first major rebel push since 2020, with HTS and SNA forces encircling government-held areas of the city. A Russian special forces unit was ambushed, with rebels showcasing captured equipment online, signaling even Moscow’s limited presence was at risk. The speed of the advance—taking dozens of settlements in under a day—highlighted the opposition’s coordination and the regime’s disarray.
The rebels’ goals appeared twofold: to reclaim territory lost in prior years and to destabilize Assad’s hold on power. While Damascus remained distant, the fall of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, loomed as a symbolic and tactical prize. State media downplayed the losses, claiming the army was “repelling terrorists,” but reports of soldiers abandoning posts painted a bleaker picture.
A Nation on the Brink
Syria’s humanitarian crisis worsened with the offensive’s onset. Over 13 million people were already displaced, and 90% lived in poverty, reliant on faltering aid networks. The renewed fighting threatened to disrupt UN supply routes into Idlib, where 4 million civilians, many in camps, faced winter shortages. The Syrian government’s shelling of Ariha on November 26, killing 16, had spurred the rebel response, but now both sides risked plunging the northwest into deeper chaos.
The regime’s economic collapse fueled the unrest. With foreign reserves nearly depleted and the Syrian pound worthless, even loyalists wavered. Soldiers, unpaid and demoralized, were reportedly defecting en masse, a trend analysts linked to Assad’s reliance on overstretched allies rather than a sustainable domestic base.
Regional and Global Reactions
The offensive rippled across the Middle East and beyond. Turkey’s tacit support suggested a bid to expand influence over a post-Assad Syria, though its focus on Kurdish-held areas hinted at broader ambitions. Iran condemned the assault as a “U.S.-Zionist plot,” while Russia vowed to back Assad, though its constrained resources cast doubt on the pledge’s weight. The U.S., with 900 troops in eastern Syria fighting ISIS, stayed mum, wary of HTS’s terrorist designation despite its battlefield dominance.
Israel monitored the situation closely, its border with Syria just hours from the fighting. The prospect of Hezbollah losing its Syrian lifeline cheered some in Jerusalem, but the chaos also risked empowering jihadist factions. The UN called for restraint, fearing a humanitarian “catastrophe,” but its influence remained limited.
Looking Ahead
As of November 27, 2024, the rebel offensive stood at a critical juncture. The capture of Aleppo seemed imminent, with Hama and Homs as potential next targets—cities that, if taken, could sever Assad’s coastal strongholds from Damascus. Whether this momentum could unseat the regime entirely remained uncertain; Assad’s allies might yet regroup, and the opposition’s unity was untested beyond initial gains.
For Syrians, the offensive rekindled hope of ending a 53-year dynasty, but also dread of what might follow. HTS’s jihadist roots raised fears of reprisals or a new authoritarian turn, while Turkey’s role hinted at a fragmented future. As rebels pressed south, the world watched a nation teetering between liberation and collapse, its fate hinging on the days ahead.