Security •

Russia Recruiting Criminal Gangs for Espionage in Europe

By Junction News - Global Affairs Division

Reports have emerged that Russia is enlisting criminal gangs to conduct espionage and disruptive operations across Europe, signaling a shift in Moscow’s intelligence tactics amid heightened tensions with the West. This development, reflects the Kremlin’s efforts to adapt after significant setbacks to its traditional spy networks. Below, we delve into the nature of these reports, the motivations behind this strategy, and its potential implications as understood on this date.

A New Espionage Playbook

By today, intelligence assessments and media outlets, including warnings from former CIA analysts and European security officials, highlighted Russia’s pivot toward using criminal networks for covert activities in Europe. This shift follows the mass expulsion of over 400 Russian intelligence officers posing as diplomats from European capitals after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine—a blow described by MI5 chief Ken McCallum as a major setback to Moscow’s espionage capabilities. With its embassy-based operatives curtailed, Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, and foreign intelligence service, SVR, are reportedly turning to less conventional proxies: organized crime groups. The Sun reported on November 12 that Russia was recruiting “amateur criminal gangs” to spy on Britain and execute sabotage missions across the continent. David McCloskey, a former CIA analyst, warned that these groups were being tasked with operations ranging from intelligence gathering to physical disruptions, a claim echoed by BBC security correspondent Gordon Corera. This followed earlier incidents, such as arson attacks and cyberattacks linked to Russian proxies, suggesting a broader campaign already underway.

Why Criminal Gangs?

The move to leverage criminal networks stems from necessity and opportunity. Russia’s traditional “sleeper agents”—deep-cover spies embedded for years—remain active but are fewer in number after recent busts, including the arrest of six Bulgarian nationals in the UK accused of spying for Moscow since 2020. With its human intelligence (HUMINT) capacity strained, the Kremlin is tapping into gangs for their agility, local knowledge, and willingness to take risks for profit. Posts on X and expert analyses suggested these recruits were often contacted via encrypted platforms like Telegram, offered payments in cryptocurrency—up to $10,000 per job—for tasks like surveilling military bases or setting fires. This strategy mirrors historical patterns. Russia has long blurred the lines between state and underworld, from Stalin’s use of thieves to fund the Bolsheviks to the modern Kremlin’s reliance on groups like the Wagner mercenaries. The war in Ukraine has further stretched Moscow’s resources, with Russia distracted by its faltering invasion and allies like Iran preoccupied domestically, leaving criminal proxies as a cost-effective alternative to professional spies.

Scope of Operations

Reports on November 12, 2024, painted a picture of a sprawling, if chaotic, effort. In the UK, six suspected Russian spies—Bulgarian nationals awaiting trial—were linked to surveillance operations benefiting Moscow. Across Europe, incidents of sabotage, including unexplained fires at industrial sites and disruptions to critical infrastructure, were increasingly attributed to Russian-backed gangs. The GRU, notorious for the 2018 Salisbury Novichok poisoning, was singled out as a key orchestrator, now outsourcing “mayhem” to less polished operatives, per MI5’s McCallum. Specific targets included military aid flows to Ukraine, a priority as Western support bolsters Kyiv’s defenses. Gangs were reportedly tasked with monitoring arms shipments and NATO facilities, with some operations appearing speculative or amateurish—such as a foiled plot in France involving Moldovans painting antisemitic graffiti. This haphazard approach, while less sophisticated, amplifies Russia’s reach, exploiting Europe’s open borders and criminal underbelly.

Risks and Challenges

For Russia, this tactic carries trade-offs. Criminal recruits lack the training of GRU or SVR agents, risking sloppy execution and easier detection. European counterintelligence, already on high alert, has disrupted several plots—Poland’s Internal Security Agency, for instance, probed Russian espionage networks earlier in 2024, while the UK expelled a Russian diplomat in May. Yet, the sheer volume of low-level operations could overwhelm Western defenses, sowing disruption even if individual missions fail. The reliance on gangs also reflects desperation. Russia’s intelligence apparatus, once feared for its precision, is adapting to a post-2022 reality where its traditional networks are fractured. Analysts noted that while this shift might yield short-term gains—like intelligence on Ukraine’s backers—it could erode Moscow’s long-term espionage credibility if proxies prove unreliable or defect under pressure.

Broader Implications

The recruitment of criminal gangs signals a new phase in Russia’s hybrid warfare against Europe, blending espionage, sabotage, and disinformation. As of Now, NATO and EU leaders were grappling with how to respond, with calls for tougher sanctions and better coordination among security agencies. The strategy aims to undermine trust in governments, deter military aid to Ukraine, and project Kremlin influence—all while keeping plausible deniability intact, as spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed such reports as “unfounded.” For Europe, the threat is tangible yet diffuse. Criminal involvement complicates law enforcement, blurring lines between organized crime and state-sponsored acts. Communities near military bases or infrastructure hubs faced heightened risks, while the specter of escalation loomed—especially if a botched operation caused casualties, prompting a sharper Western retaliation.

Looking Ahead

As of November 12, 2024, Russia’s use of criminal gangs for espionage marked an evolving challenge to European security. With the Ukraine war grinding on and Putin’s regime doubling down on confrontation, this unconventional approach suggested adaptability but also vulnerability. Whether it would succeed in destabilizing the West or backfire by exposing Moscow’s weakened hand remained unclear, leaving intelligence agencies and policymakers racing to counter a shadowy, unpredictable foe.

Junction News

Junction News

Global Affairs Coverage

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